MLB futures odds: Phillies climbing behind steady offensive surge

Maybe there was something special in the Canadian air. Whatever it was, it seems to have breathed new life into the Phillies’ season.

Since the night of Aug. 16, the second half of a quick two-game set in Toronto, the Phillies have been smashing the baseball. They won, 9-4, that night and kicked off a 13-game stretch to end the month of August on a 9-4 run in which they scored 7.9 runs per game.

For context, the MLB-leading Braves scored 5.2 runs per game during that stretch.

It’s a small sample size, of course, but the Phillies will welcome it. The stretch has seen their NL wild-card lead balloon to five games over the Giants, who were clinging Thursday morning to the final playoff spot that no one seems to want to grab.

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The Phillies were off Thursday before starting a six-game road trip through Milwaukee — where they’ll get a potential playoff preview vs. the Brewers — and San Diego.

They may not be in the same class as the Braves — though seven head-to-head matchups this month will give that full picture — or Dodgers, but the Phillies have seen their playoff chances rise significantly since the All-Star break and are creeping up the NL and World Series odds boards as the calendar turns to September.

Here’s a look at some MLB futures odds as baseball’s regular season hits its final full month.

Flash back to July, after the All-Star break, and the Phillies were in a decent spot. A 23-9 run into the break had them at 48-41, and oddsmakers at BetMGM placed the team’s odds to make the postseason at -225.

Now? DraftKings had that number on Thursday morning all the way up to -5000, meaning it would take a $50 wager just to earn $1.

Like your information to come via percentages? The Phillies were just 51% to make the postseason, according to baseball analytics site FanGraphs, coming out of the All-Star break. They’re 97% now.

For most of the 2023 MLB season, NL futures markets have mostly shown how dominant the Braves and Dodgers are. And let’s be clear, they’re exactly that.

The Braves entered their four-game series with the Dodgers on Thursday in Los Angeles with the best record in baseball at 87-45. They had an astounding plus-235 run differential. The closest team to them in that category was Tampa Bay, at plus-186. The Rangers and Dodgers were next at plus-173 and plus-170, respectively.

The Phillies? They’ll head into the weekend at plus-73, a respectable number.

But the NL has been a two-horse race for a reason.

Still, the Phillies are making a little noise. They were 12/1 to win the NL for the second straight season coming out of the All-Star break and were down to 10/1 in mid-August.

DraftKings on Thursday had the Phillies at +650 (6.5/1), while others like FanDuel and BetMGM had the Phillies at +850 and +850, respectively.

The Braves and Dodgers each had shorter than 2/1 odds at those sportsbooks, with FanDuel giving Atlanta (+130) the shortest number on the board.

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Futures markets seem to be sure of one thing: The Braves or Dodgers will represent the National League in the World Series.

They were atop the World Series odds boards at FanDuel on Thursday. After the Braves (+260) and Dodgers (+320) were five American League teams ahead of the Phillies (+1600).

Here’s a look at the top 10 teams on FanDuel’s World Series odds board as of Thursday morning:

Braves +260

Dodgers +320

Astros +600

Rays, Rangers, Orioles +1100

Mariners +1400

Phillies +1600

Blue Jays +2400

Twins +2600

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The AL MVP race ended a long time ago. You’ll struggle to find many sportsbooks still taking action on it. It will be Shohei Ohtani. And the NL Rookie of the Year award is Corbin Carroll’s. Some sportsbooks are still taking action on that one, though BetMGM had it all the way up to -10000 Thursday morning (bet $100 to win $1).

Some of the other awards, however, don’t have a clear winner yet.

Here’s a look at where the odds stand at FanDuel on the other season-long awards.

NL MVP: Ronald Acuña Jr. -140; Mookie Betts +105

NL Cy Young: Blake Snell -140; Spencer Strider +350; Zac Gallen +600; Justin Steele +700

AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole -185; Luis Castillo +230

AL Rookie of the Year: Gunnar Henderson -450; Triston Casas +700; Tanner Bibee +1000